Latest Exhibition Industry Forecast: Partly Cloudy

The exhibition industry faces another challenging year ahead as it continues to inch closer to 2019 performance.

The Center for Exhibition Industry Research (CEIR) Index, a composite of performance indicators for the exhibition industry, hit a recent peak, just 2% shy of 2019 levels, in the fourth quarter of 2025.

Just four exhibition sectors have exceeded 2019 performance: building, construction, and home repair; transportation; government; and industrial/heavy machinery. The biggest losers were the industries most closely tied to the economy: consumer goods and retail.

Net square feet and number of exhibitors were the best performing metrics in the Index, while attendance was still down about 6% relative to 2019 and real revenue (adjusted for inflation) was still down more than 10%. 

A CEIR webinar entitled “Where the U.S. B2B Exhibition Industry Stands and What Comes Next,” shared the latest research on the impact of rising energy costs, increasing anti-U.S. sentiment among attendees, and other factors impeding industry growth.

“We’ve got a pretty good mix of tailwinds and turbulence,” said presenter Adam Sacks, president, Tourism Economics, an Oxford Economics Company.

Strong Corporate Profits

The good news is that high corporate profits will continue to be the fuel behind the growth of the industry, encouraging companies to participate in exhibitions.

Oxford Economics has been collaborating with the Events Industry Council on the Global Business Events Barometer, tracking RFPs for all sizes of events, including conventions and other business meetings. Data for the fourth quarter of 2025 shows that the pace of RFPs is 24% higher than the same quarter in 2024.

“This shows that we have a lot of runway in front of us as far as new events, and new RFPs that are being planned right now,” said Sachs.

Rising Energy Costs 

Despite these tailwinds, geopolitical and economic factors continue to have a negative influence on exhibition industry growth. 

Though consumers have seen $50 billion in tax returns so far in 2026 as a result of the One Big Beautiful Bill, “increases in gas prices have really taken the sheen off that,” said Sachs, predicting that they will more offset the benefits of income tax returns by May.

Consumer sentiment has dropped to its lowest recorded level ever, according to the latest report from the University of Michigan. “Consumers are obviously very concerned and they’re feeling it at the most basic level of purchasing power, the pump.”

The unemployment rate ticked down in April, and more than 100,000 jobs were created in each of the last two months. However, Sachs pointed out, “For those that don’t have a job, it has become increasingly difficult to find one. Long-term unemployment (27 weeks or longer) has been ticking up consistently for the past three to four years.”

One piece of good news is that the tariff rate, which was over 20% at this time in 2025, is down to 9.2%.

As a result, Tourism Economics has lowered its 2026 GDP forecast from a 2.8% increase from 2025 to 1.9%; increased its inflation forecast from a 2.5% increase to 3.3%; and decreased its forecast for consumer spending from a 2.5% increase to 1.9%.

“This is a pretty substantial downgrade, as we’re looking at a U.S. economy that’s entering into a slower growth phase because of the headwinds of energy prices and all that it brings in terms of consumer sentiment, business investment, and consumption,” Sachs said.

Anti-U.S. Sentiment From International Travelers 

Group hotels bookings have increased 1.6% in the first four months of 2026, with group demand exceeding the rate of transient demand.

However, in the first four months, overseas travel to the U.S. fell another 4.3%, after falling 2.3% last year.

“Clearly, the antipathy toward U.S. rhetoric and policy that is present around the world right now is flowing through to decisions to not travel to the U.S.,” Sachs said.

Leading the way are Canadian travelers. Canadian travel to the U.S. fell 25% in 2025, and for the first four months of 2026 fell an additional 11%.

CEIR’s Organizer Performance Benchmarks from February of 2026 mirror the Tourism Economics/Oxford research, said Nancy Drapeau, vice president of research. CEIR identified the top factors expected to negatively impact attendance and sponsorship at exhibitions as travel costs, the economy, inflation, tariffs, the geopolitical landscape, immigration and visa policies.” 

“That signifies that the opportunities in the current business events industry climate are domestic,” she said.

Despite the headwinds, event organizers remain cautiously optimistic for the outcomes for their events in 2026, Drapeau said. “If there’s another tailwind behind this optimism, it’s the grit, the stick-to-itiveness, and the aggressiveness of organizers to align with the best opportunities in the current business climate.”